The Mexico Peace Index shows that peace has improved by 7.4% over the last two years.
Mexico has the greatest potential of any country in the world to overcome its current levels of violence and build a more peaceful society.
The top three most peaceful states are Campeche, Queretaro and Hidalgo. The most peaceful places tend to be located in the southeast, with the exception of Quintana Roo, while the least peaceful tend to be located in the northwestern states of Mexico, particularly along the US border. Morelos, Guerrero and Sinaloa are the three least peaceful states in Mexico.
The improvement in the levels of peace in Mexico over the last two years was largely driven by decreases in organized crime, violent crime, and weapons crime. However, over the past 10 years Mexico experienced a marked increase in direct violence as a result of the drug war, with peace declining by 27%. A key factor was the 37% increase in the homicide rate since 2007. In addition, the number of firearms being smuggled into Mexico has tripled over the last decade. Consequently weapons crimes have increased by 117% per 100,000 people. Mexico has the institutional capacity to become more peaceful; the country has a strong business environment, performs well on measures of human development, and ranks better than world averages on education.
The study calculates that the direct cost of violence to the Mexican economy is 3.8% of GDP, while the indirect costs amount to 12% for a total of 2.49 trillion pesos (15.8% of GDP) in 2012. Under optimal conditions, if there was no violence in Mexico, the economy would have the potential to improve by up to 27%.
The report highlights that if all the states of Mexico were as peaceful as Campeche, the most peaceful state in the country, Mexico would reap an economic benefit of 2.26 trillion pesos. That’s equivalent to the amount required to pay each Mexican citizen living below the poverty line the minimum wage for two full years.
The most peaceful Mexican states in 2003 experienced the strongest economic performance in 2012. Over the past 10 years, these states’ GDP increased by 9% versus 4% in the least peaceful states.
Vision of Humanity is an initiative of the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). IEP have offices in New York and Sydney. For more specific inquiries related to the peace indexes and research, please contact IEP directly.